Ukraine’s EU Accession Reforms Stall as Brussels Keeps Paying

Pale turquoise plasterwork covers Kyiv’s Mariinsky Palace, a tone only slightly lighter than the navy binders presented to Volodymyr Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. Their signing event on July 15th inaugurated a fresh arrangement worth €10bn ($11.5bn) for co-manufacturing drones and long-range missiles. That funding forms part of the European Union’s €90bn Ukraine Support Loan.

What the €10bn drone deal did not fix

Yet the leaders’ grins hid an uncomfortable reality: while EU accession remains Ukraine’s declared goal, legislative work toward it is lagging. Talks on a first “fundamentals cluster”, covering rule of law, democracy, anti-corruption efforts and public administration, were formally launched in June.

But Kyiv should have begun adopting the required laws half a year before, under a heavily promoted ten-point plan concluded last December by the EU’s enlargement commissioner and Ukraine’s minister for European integration. Instead the government has tabled just four bills so far, and parliament has approved only two. One adopted measure, monitors warn, is riddled with loopholes. A coalition of Ukrainian NGOs scores progress at 15 out of 100.

Justice is the file that alarms Brussels most

Stagnation in the justice system causes particular alarm. Scandals occur constantly. In early July a district court sought to prohibit release of reporting by anti-corruption media outlets concerning the director of the State Bureau of Investigation, which investigates crimes by public officials. (The director’s brother allegedly acquired property at prices far below market value; both deny any wrongdoing.)

On June 9th Ukraine’s parliament adopted legislation that reform advocates describe as regressive, easing the way for judges to conceal their assets. Barely any advance has occurred on statutes to overhaul the Supreme Court, whose former president was recently sentenced to five years in jail for bribe-taking, and the prosecutor-general’s office, which was involved in an attempt last summer to hobble anti-corruption bodies.

Surveys indicate foreign investors rank the rule of law as their top worry, even above defence and security. A separate recent poll found that three in four Ukrainians do not trust the courts.

Brussels keeps paying anyway

The EU remains absorbed by Ukraine’s fight to protect itself and Europe, and is overlooking those problems. Court reform is meant to be a central requirement for sustained financial assistance, yet on June 8th a seventh loan tranche, amounting to €2.8bn, was disbursed despite the absence of progress.

Ukraine is learning that it can get away with it, says Jakub Parusinski, a political consultant in Kyiv.

Mykhailo Zhernakov, a former judge who runs the Dejure Foundation, one of the think-tanks behind the reform scorecard, says that long lists of demands paradoxically make it easier to evade the important stuff. “You can say, ‘we’ve done digitisation of court decisions—hooray!’ Never mind that we’ve done nothing about the Supreme Court.”

The excuses for leniency toward Ukraine are artfully used by the government’s business-as-usual faction: that reforms are unconstitutional, violate sovereignty, are impossible in wartime, cost too much, or are impossible to get through parliament. “We call it anti-reform bullshit bingo.”

Zelensky’s bill-by-bill arithmetic

Mr Zelensky has lost his majority in parliament, and these days has to cut deals with the conservatives bill by bill. But he can pull together a majority when he wants to, as he did during a ministerial reshuffle last month. Much of the opposition to quicker reform comes from within his own administration. Hoping to shame the government into action, a group of reformist MPs has put forward four draft reform bills of its own.

Still, Taras Kachka, the outgoing minister for European integration, scoffs that drafting a new law code is not like ordering from McDonald’s. He calls Mr Zhernakov “a Don Quixote”.

The limits of EU pressure

For the EU, calling out Ukraine is difficult. Pressure is being exerted behind the scenes, says a spokeswoman for the commission. But such diplomatic restraint may mean that no genuine progress is made. Within the Ukrainian government, says an MP, “there’s a perception that the benchmarks will be renegotiated, taken off the agenda.” By accepting the flawed law on judges’ asset declarations, the EU has “opened a Pandora’s box. This will now happen with every sensitive bill.” Parliament may feel it can get away with a similarly watered-down law on reforming the notoriously politicised State Bureau of Investigation.

What Ukrainians want, and what they are watching

Polls still show that a large majority of Ukrainians want EU membership, and want foreign allies to keep up the pressure for change. But there is no prospect of elections while the war continues, so ordinary people have little sway over the government.

To be sure, Mr Zelensky’s dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov, a popular reformist, as defence minister in mid-July led to big protests, including a thousands-strong march through central Kyiv on July 31st. The uproar persuaded the president to replace Oleksandr Syrsky, Mr Fedorov’s chief rival, as commander-in-chief. But the nitty-gritty of judicial appointment procedures is unlikely to bring people onto the streets in the same way.

Regular Ukrainians are more worried about the next Russian missile attack, says Ihor Lachenkov, a 27-year-old political commentator whose Telegram channel has over 1.5m followers. “They’re tired, they spend 80% of their income on food. They’re not very interested in how reforms are going.” All the more reason, says Mr Zhernakov, for Europe to throw its weight about. “The only way to make things move ahead is to say ‘This is what’s needed,’ and then hold the line.”

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