Audio
Listen to the article
- Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed is up for re-election on June 1st, seeking to make Ethiopia the dominant power in the Horn of Africa.
- He has personalised power to a degree unseen since Haile Selassie; voters next week face no real choice, and a post-election “national dialogue” may propose a directly elected presidency to keep him in office for decades.
- The project risks renewed civil war — hundreds of thousands were killed in Tigray from 2020 to 2022 — and a return to catastrophic war with Eritrea over Red Sea access.
The prime minister’s ambitions threaten both Ethiopia and the Horn
Fortune has smiled on Abiy Ahmed. When Ethiopia’s prime minister was a boy, his mother prophesied that he would become a king. As a thrusting cadre of the ruling party, he told colleagues he would one day be their boss. They made him Africa’s youngest leader in 2018. He promised allies that he would make peace with Eritrea, a country to the north that had been part of Ethiopia until 1993 — and win a Nobel prize for it. He was proved right within 18 months of taking office.
Such chutzpah is typical of Mr Abiy, who is up for re-election on June 1st. He wants to create a rich, powerful Ethiopia that occupies what he considers its rightful place as the dominant power in the Horn of Africa. Naturally, he expects to be in charge.
The case for taking him seriously
In the past eight years he has opened up the economy; demolished and rebuilt much of Addis Ababa, the capital; unveiled Africa’s largest dam; and broken ground on what is set to be its biggest airport. The IMF says Ethiopia’s economy will grow faster in 2026 than that of any other non-oil producer.
Those are all good reasons to pay Mr Abiy attention. Yet there is another, more alarming one: the uncompromising prime minister also risks tearing Ethiopia apart, and could inflict great pain on the Horn of Africa.
Democracy promised, autocracy delivered
When Mr Abiy took office he promised a historic transition to democracy. Instead, through guile and brute force, he has personalised power to a degree unseen since the days of Haile Selassie, Ethiopia’s last emperor (who Rastafarians believe was the Messiah).
At the polls next week voters will be offered no real choice. Nor is there any reason to trust that Mr Abiy will step down after two terms, as he once promised allies. After the election a “national dialogue” is widely expected to propose changes to the constitution, possibly creating a directly elected presidency. Mr Abiy could then swap his current role for a grander one and stay in power for decades.
Most populous in Africa, after Nigeria
Share of population that is ethnic Tigrayan
Civil war killed hundreds of thousands
A diverse country under strain
Given the size and diversity of Africa’s second-most-populous country (after Nigeria), this is a recipe for instability. Since 2018 Mr Abiy has faced multiple rebellions, none of which has truly ended.
By far the biggest is by ethnic Tigrayans, who make up roughly 6% of Ethiopia’s population and whose leaders dominated the federal government before Mr Abiy shoved them aside. Hundreds of thousands of people are thought to have been killed in a civil war between 2020 and 2022; Mr Abiy’s forces committed crimes against humanity. Troubling signs suggest that the war could soon flare up again.
A Red Sea claim that alarms Eritrea
A deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which briefly flourished after the rapprochement in 2018, is another cause for alarm.
The prime minister says — not without reason — that Issaias Afwerki, Eritrea’s longtime dictator, is conspiring with his domestic enemies, including the Tigrayans. But Mr Abiy’s increasingly open desire for a slice of Eritrea’s Red Sea coastline understandably alarms Eritreans. The risk of a return to a catastrophic regional war remains worryingly high.
Eritrea was part of Ethiopia until 1993. Any attempt to seize a Red Sea coastline risks a wider Horn of Africa war, on top of unresolved internal rebellions.
Why outsiders should use their leverage now
This should give outsiders pause. Mr Abiy’s global standing, which tanked during the Tigray war, has been on the up of late. Both America and the EU seek closer ties, judging that Ethiopia is too big, and Mr Abiy too important, to ignore.
Yet previous Western coddling helped the prime minister consolidate his authority and emboldened him to wage war. Outsiders should thus use their remaining leverage — above all, the promise of trade and investment — to nudge Mr Abiy in a less dangerous direction.
The lesson of Ethiopian history, after all, is that unchecked emperors eventually undo themselves. ■
KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING
A good story is worth sharing.
Send this story to someone who values the bigger picture.
See more from GlobeBriefly on Google
Choose us as a preferred source in your Google preferences.
